25 Feb

Bold predictions for NBA regular-season stretch run, including Jayson Tatum’s MVP push, 76ers in Play-In

A lackluster NBA All-Star break is now in the past, and real basketball has begun again. While this portion of the schedule is colloquially known as the second half, we’re well past the halfway point of the 2023-24 season. There’s less than two months remaining in the regular season, and it will be a mad dash to the finish line, with plenty of playoff spots and seeding battles still to be determined.

As we look ahead to the end of another exciting season, here is our staff’s boldest predictions for the regular season’s home stretch:

Jayson Tatum will win MVP
Does saying the best player on the team with by far the best record in the league will win MVP qualify as a bold prediction? I’m not entirely sure, but given his long-shot odds (+1400 at Caesars Sportsbook) and the fact that he got zero first-place votes in ESPN’s straw poll earlier this month, I’m going to allow it.

Jayson Tatum has been a key part of the Celtics’ incredible season. Getty Images
The Celtics are already on 64-win pace and have the second-easiest schedule remaining in the league, including two matchups against each of the Pistons, Wizards, Hornets and Trail Blazers. There’s a good chance they become the first team since the 2018 Rockets to win 65 games. Tatum, meanwhile, has historically put up big numbers down the stretch. March (24.1 points per game, 60.7 true shooting %) and April (24.2 points, 59.2 TS%) are the highest-scoring and most efficient months of his career.

Tatum’s candidacy was a national story during the All-Star break, and the narrative will keep building in his favor if both he and the Celtics really catch fire down the stretch. At a certain point, it may become undeniable. — Jack Maloney

Déjà vu for the Warriors
The Golden State Warriors will go on a post-All-Star run reminiscent of last season’s, in which they won 15 of their final 23 games and jumped from 10th place to sixth. This time, the turnaround has already started — if they hadn’t blown a fourth-quarter lead against the Los Angeles Clippers last Wednesday, they would’ve entered the break on a seven-game winning streak — and, with 28 games left on the schedule, they have a chance to make up even more ground.

warriors-group-still-2024.png
The Warriors are primed to go on a post All-Star week run, writes James Herbert. Getty Images
I’m optimistic about the Warriors because, since Draymond Green returned from suspension, their pieces have finally seemed to fall into place. I like the idea of Klay Thompson and Chris Paul working against second units, and I love the way Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski have been playing. Also, based on cumulative opponent winning percentage, Golden State has an easier post-ASG schedule than any other team in the mix for a playoff (or Play-In Tournament) spot in the West. — James Herbert

The 76ers will fall to the Play-In Tournament
Philadelphia is 6-15 without Joel Embiid this season, and nobody seems quite certain on when he’ll come back (if he does at all). Currently, the 76ers are only 1.5 games ahead of the Magic and two in front of the Heat in the standings. And while Philadelphia has the ninth-hardest remaining schedule, Miami’s ranks 27th and Orlando’s ranks 30th. Miami is 2-0 against Philadelphia this season, so the Heat are just one win away from the tiebreaker. Philadelphia would still be extremely dangerous from a Play-In Tournament slot if Embiid is healthy, but the rest of its regular season does not look all that promising. — Sam Quinn

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Tyrese Maxey has been an integral part of keeping the 76ers alive in Joel Embiid’s absence. Getty Images
The Clippers will finish with the best record in the West
Where were you the day James Harden was traded to L.A.? Hopefully not making memes and calling it a bust, because after a 3-7 start in the Harden era, the Clippers are rolling. Currently, they are just 2.5 games out of the Western Conference’s top seed, and it isn’t inconceivable to think that they could reach the top of the mountain by season’s end. Kawhi Leonard has played like an MVP, Paul George is at his All-Star self and Russell Westbrook has settled into his bench role. Never mind that Harden has been excellent. Yes, his 3-point attempts are down this year (6.7), but his three-point percentage has never been better (42%).

While Los Angeles owns the 11th-hardest remaining schedule, one just has to look toward the team’s nine-game winning streak as proof that anything is possible. Over that nine-game streak, which is tied for the longest in the NBA this season, the Clippers dismantled the Nuggets, Kings, Knicks, Pacers and Mavs. West, beware. — Johnny Flores

25 Feb

Who can push Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren for the No. 1 spot?

The NBA has returned from its All-Star break slumber, which means we’ve entered the home stretch of the regular season. Teams are getting serious about jockeying for playoff spots, others are getting serious about their draft positions and the races for all the major awards are becoming more crystalized. And while the Rookie of the Year race typically isn’t as exciting as Most Valuable Player or Defensive Player of the Year, this year’s race has turned out to be one of the more memorable ones. For a big portion of the season, it wasn’t as obvious as to who would win the award, but with roughly 30 games left on the schedule, the rankings are becoming more clear.

This year’s class has shown us that the 2023 NBA Draft had a wealth of young talent. Many of the players listed here and featured in my weekly rookie rankings have the potential to be All-Stars, win MVP, and become important role players with lengthy careers. All of these players have bright futures ahead of them, but only one can go home with the Rookie of the Year hardware. With that in mind, here’s the Rookie of the Year rankings as the NBA kicks back into gear for the last month and a half of the regular season.

  1. Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors
    When you get elevated to the starting lineup in place of future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson to share the backcourt with another future Hall of Famer in Stephen Curry, you know you’re doing something right. Podziemski isn’t putting up the numbers some of his fellow draft classmates are, but he’s impacting winning for a Warriors team that has sorely needed someone else to step up so it doesn’t just all fall on Curry’s shoulders.
25 Feb

‘Stop all the tough-guy stuff’

With 12 seconds remaining and the game firmly in hand for the Golden State Warriors, Lester Quinones went up for a worthless layup that Charlotte Hornets forward Miles Bridges – in accordance with what Draymond Green later called a “dumb unwritten rule” that you’re not supposed to score at the end of a game that’s no longer in question – did not appreciate.

Bridges went up and swatted the ball away. Got called for a goaltend. Had some words and a little shove with Quinones, who was only shooting in the first place because there was a difference between the shot clock and the game clock. And the next thing you knew, a scuffle was breaking out as resident tough guy Grant Williams, whom Charlotte acquired at the trade deadline in a deal with the Mavericks, came running into the fray.

Here’s the zoomed-out view:

The reaction from Kerr and Steve Clifford as this bizarre scuffle occurred is hilarious.

The embrace to the freeze to the WTF.

Can’t believe Grant Williams was involved. pic.twitter.com/P6NO52cFPA

— Tim Ryan🦤 (@TheSportsHernia) February 24, 2024
Here’s the zoomed-in view, where you can plainly read the lips of Quinones as he shares some, shall we say, choice words with Williams:

Lester Quinones to Grant Williams: “You a b****.” 😳

The Warriors and Hornets got into a scuffle late in the fourth quarter.

(via @NBCSWarriors)
pic.twitter.com/ljJaHL9KUt

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) February 24, 2024
Question: What’s with Williams and his penchant for forehead warfare? It’s the same way he locked horns with Jimmy Butler in last year’s conference finals. Does he think he’s some sort of ram?

Grant Williams trash talking Jimmy Butler with the Heat down 9 in an Eastern Conference Finals playoff game on the road, then Jimmy isoing him the rest of the game until they won https://t.co/3gLQMKALMd pic.twitter.com/PlUNPBlp1N

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) August 28, 2023
Anyway, the game ended with Williams waving to the Warriors’ bench as he was escorted off the court in a 97-84 win for Golden State, which has now won 10 of its past 12 games. Afterward, Draymond Green, who knows a thing or two about flying off the handle, had some choice words of his own for Williams.

“Grant Williams gotta stop it, man. Being like this tough guy is going absolutely wrong for him,” Green said. “Like, he’s a really nice guy. For some reason, he keeps trying to jump on the unlikeable side, and I must tell you, it’s not always fun over here. And so, I don’t know man, he need to figure it out. I mean, talking too much kind of got [Williams] out of Dallas. Like, overdoing it. And he’s over there [in Charlotte] talking too much now. He might want to slow down and stop all the tough-guy stuff.

“Pray for Grant Williams,” Green said in closing.

Draymond’s full comment:

“Being this tough guy is going absolutely wrong for him … Talking too much kind of got you out of Dallas … “

Draymond went in on Grant Williams 😳 pic.twitter.com/SbtAT7k5oh

— Warriors on NBCS (@NBCSWarriors) February 24, 2024
So here’s the thing: Green is right about this sore-loser idea that you can’t score at the end of a game no longer in question. It is dumb. It’s just like not being able to steal in baseball when you’re winning by some undefined amount of runs. Please. We’re talking about multi-millionaire professionals. There are no orange slices and juice boxes at halftime. If you don’t like your opponent scoring when they’re already beating the hell out of you, don’t let them beat the hell out of you in the first place. Cut the crybaby stuff.

Green is also right about Williams trying too hard to go heel. He was a yapper in Boston, and ESPN’s Tim McMahon recently noted that Williams was shipped out of Dallas because he “rubbed a lot of people the wrong way.” Williams was a good player in Boston and still has a long NBA career in front of him, but he doesn’t have the cache to pull off this act.

That said, the only thing Williams did here is come to the defense of a teammate, even if his teammate was in the wrong, and it’s certainly ironic that Draymond Green would be the one to school someone else on the finer virtues of NBA etiquette.

You might recall that Green was suspended a little more than three months ago for running into what was a nothing scuffle, which he had nothing to do with, and dragging Rudy Gobert out in a chokehold. Not long after that, he was suspended again, this time indefinitely, for smoking Jusuf Nurkic across the face. This is the same guy who knocked out his own teammate for crying out loud, and he’s here to comment on what Williams did wrong in Dallas.

I don’t know if Green just can’t see the hypocrisy of his words or if he thinks he’s standing on some higher ground because he is, in his eyes, a “real” tough guy while Williams is putting on an act, but either way, it’s hilarious. Green is the last guy that needs to be telling fellow players to tone down the shenanigans. Give me a break. What we have here is a classic case of right message, wrong messenger.

25 Feb

Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama makes 5×5 history as his rookie season continues to exceed hype

Victor Wembanyama is something, man. At 20 years old, I already have him as one of the best 25 players this season. Even if you disagree with that ranking, there’s no disputing how incredible he’s been for the Spurs as a rookie.

It’s not even March, and Wembanyama is already the first player in history to record 150 blocks, 150 assists, and 75 made 3-pointers in a single season. Just before the All-Star break, Wembanyama carded 27 points, 14 rebounds, 10 blocks, five assists and two steals against the Raptors on 71% shooting. No other player in history has met those single-game benchmarks.

Now, in his second game coming out of the All-Star break, Wembanyama has become the youngest player ever – and just the 15th in total – to join the exclusive 5×5 club, which requires the recording of at least five points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in a single game.

He did it on Friday night in a loss to the Lakers … in the fewest minutes ever.

Victor Wembanyama is the YOUNGEST player in NBA history to record a 5×5 (PTS-REB-AST-STL-BLK) game 📊

Wembanyama completed this 5×5 game in 30 minutes and 55 seconds, the fewest minutes ever played in such a game 🤯 pic.twitter.com/oenPznGOKM

— NBA (@NBA) February 24, 2024
The last player to record a 5×5 game was Jusuf Nurkic in 2019. The only other rookie to pull it off was Jamaal Tinsley in 2001.

What’s crazy: Wembanyama missed a 5×5 game by just one assist on Thursday, posting 19 points, 13 rebounds, five blocks, five steals and four assists against the Kings.

Think about that. Only 14 other players in history have pulled this off, and this dude, a 20-year-old rookie, nearly did it on consecutive nights. He joined Michael Jordan as the only player in history to even record five blocks and five steals in back-to-back games, and yet, all he’s concerned with is the outcome of the games, neither of which went in San Antonio’s favor.

Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama on joining Michael Jordan w/ back-to-back 5-steal, 5-block games: “I wonder if he did it in wins, not losses. To me, it’s secondary. Hopefully… we can look back & think this is a good performance. As of today, I can’t be satisfied with a loss.” pic.twitter.com/ITAd0bupxr

— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) February 24, 2024
Wembanyama entered the NBA as the most hyped rookie since LeBron James. It seemed impossible that he could live up to the hype immediately. Somehow, he’s actually exceeding it.

He leads the league in blocks, on pace to become the first rookie since Manute Bol in 1986 to do so. Since the Spurs did away with the Jeremey Sochan point guard experiment and started playing Wembanyama at center, he has exploded.

Since the start of January, a stretch of 23 games, Wemby is averaging just under 23 points and 10 boards with 3.7 assists, 3.4 blocks and 1.7 steals. He’s shooting 49 percent, including 35 percent from 3 on over five attempts per game. He is doing this in barely 27 minutes per game, which is pure insanity.

Extrapolate those numbers to per 36 minutes, and Wemby’s ledger reads like this: 30.1 points, 13 boards, 4.9 assists, 4.5 blocks, 1.8 steals. Play this guy 36 minutes, and he is damn near averaging a 5×5 for crying out loud.

There’s a strong argument to be made that Wembanyama is already the most intimidating defensive player in the league. When you add this kind of offense to it, well, as LeBron James said on Friday, “he doesn’t have a ceiling.”

“He can do whatever he wants in his career,” James said of Wembanyama. “…You got guys in our league that you have to account for any time you get around the rim or around the perimeter in our league history, and he sits right at the top, if not around the top, with all the greats.”

25 Feb

2024 NBA picks, Feb. 24 best bets from proven model

An Eastern Conference tilt features the New York Knicks (34-22) hosting the Boston Celtics (44-12) on Saturday night. Boston is leading the conference as the No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, New York is currently the fourth seed. The Celtics have won three straight games over the Knicks. On Dec. 8, Boston defeated the New York 133-123. OG Anunoby (elbow), Julius Randle (shoulder) and Mitchell Robinson (ankle) are all out for New York.

Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York. Boston is the 6-point favorite in the latest Celtics vs. Knicks odds via SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points is 224.5. Before making any Knicks vs. Celtics picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 60-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Knicks vs. Celtics. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Knicks:

Knicks vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -6
Knicks vs. Celtics over/under: 224.5 points
Knicks vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -241, Knicks +195
BOS: 2-0-1 ATS against Knicks this season
NYK: 15-11-1 ATS overall this season
Knicks vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Celtics can cover
Center Kristaps Porzingis has been a great addition to the Celtics frontcourt this season. Porzingis’ length gives opposing ball handlers trouble in the lane and he has a smooth jumper to space the floor. The 28-year-old averages 20.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. On Feb. 9, Porzingis had 34 points and 11 rebounds.

Guard Derrick White is another contributor in the backcourt. White can score from all three levels but scans the court well as a facilitator. The Colorado product logs 15.8 points, 4.7 assists, and shoots 39% from downtown. He’s scored 27-plus in back-to-back games. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Knicks can cover
With Randle out, guard Jalen Brunson is the clear-cut leader of this team. The Villanova product consistently scores in the paint and has a dependable jump shot. Additionally, Brunson will get his teammates involved. He’s eighth in the NBA in scoring (27.5) and 13th in assists (6.6). On Feb. 22, Brunson notched 21 points and 12 assists.

Forward Bojan Bogdanovic brings a true 3-point threat onto the court. Bogdanovic owns a sweet-shooting stroke, knocking down spot-up and pull-up triples. The 34-year-old is averaging 19.8 points, 2.3 assists and makes 41% of his 3-point attempts. Bogdanovic totaled 22 points and went a perfect 6-of-6 from downtown in Thursday’s victory over the 76ers. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Knicks vs. Celtics picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 229 points. The model also says one side hits in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.

25 Feb

‘It’s just as much about the fans’

LeBron James may be 21 years into arguably the greatest NBA career any player has ever had, but all good things come to an end eventually. Whether it’s in one year or several, James will eventually play his final NBA game, and as he claimed at All-Star Weekend, he’s not exactly sure how he wants that to play out.

“I don’t know how many seasons I have left. I know it’s not that many. I was asked this question a couple days ago, ‘Will you take the farewell tour or just ‘Tim Duncan’ it?’ I’m 50-50,” James said. Duncan, famously, did not publicly reveal his retirement plans during the 2015-16 season. His San Antonio Spurs were eliminated from the playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder and he quietly retired afterward.

During that same season, Kobe Bryant went on one of the most extravagant retirement tours the NBA has ever seen. Teams gave him gifts as he arrived in arenas for the final time, and the whole affair culminated with a 60-point finale in his last game against the Utah Jazz.

Bryant wasn’t the first player to do a retirement tour. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar had a famous one of his own at the end of his legendary career, and New York Yankees legends Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera both had extravagant sendoffs. But Duncan and Bryant, both due to their stature and their differing preferences, have become the modern example of the retirement spectrum. James, publicly at least, has indicated that he currently falls somewhere between the two.

Fortunately, another basketball legend has some advice for him. WNBA icon Sue Bird followed Bryant’s path and had a tour of her own for her final season, and in an appearance on Sports Media with Richard Deitsch, she advised James to do the same.

“When I look back I still have fond, fond, fond memories,” Bird said of her tour. “I wouldn’t change a thing. I’m so glad I announced when I announced and I got to experience the farewell tour, and I was actually anti-that at one point a couple of years prior, so that was interesting for me to experience it in that way. My only regret is how the season ended because we lost.

“Otherwise, no, whoever this applies to, I could not recommend this more. I tell Diana, ‘I cannot recommend this enough,’ if I talked to LeBron right now, I’d be like ‘Bro, I could not recommend this enough.’ Because what I realized is a couple of things. One, it’s just as much about the fans and them being able to say goodbye to you. And I always thought of it like, ‘I don’t know if I want this attention.’ You have to almost see outside of yourself and understand that this is going to be meaningful for so many people. The second thing, I will say, it can be a lot. It can be a lot, but I just think the pros outweigh the cons. I’ll finish with, it is each individual’s choice, you have to be up for it, or game for it. I would just always argue that there might be things you personally gain or things you learn about yourself, your career, your relationship with the fans without this experience.”

Given his longevity, fans need that opportunity to say goodbye to James more than they have for any other star in league history. He’s been around for over two decades with no end in sight. He’s already played against 40% of all players in NBA history, and that number is going to creep closer to a 50-50 split the longer he stays in the league. There are quite a few adult fans that have never experienced an NBA without James in it.

Fortunately, while James himself hasn’t made a commitment in one direction or another, the general consensus seems to be that he is likelier to do one than not. Yes, he hinted at retirement consideration after losing the Western Conference Finals last season, but those comments were dismissed so heartily by the rest of the league that Nuggets coach Michael Malone even joked about them at after Denver won the title.

James has never been subtle. Whatever he does, he does it with flair. The thought that the player behind “The Decision” might retire without any fanfare seems very unlikely. If Bird’s comments help push him over the top, then all the better.

24 Jan

2024 NBA picks, Jan. 23 best bets by proven model

A Western Conference tilt has the Los Angeles Lakers (22-22) and the Los Angeles Clippers (27-14) squaring off on Tuesday. The Clippers are currently sitting as the No. 4 seed in the conference, while the Lakers are in the ninth spot. The purple and gold have won both contests against the Clippers this season, and on Jan. 7, the Lakers topped the Clippers 106-103. LeBron James (ankle) is out for the Lakers, while Ivica Zubac (calf) is out for the Clippers.

Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The Clippers are 9.5-point favorites in the latest Lakers vs. Clippers odds, per SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 234.5. Before making any Clippers vs. Lakers picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 48-25 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Clippers and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Clippers vs. Lakers:

Lakers vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -9.5
Lakers vs. Clippers over/under: 234.5 points
Lakers vs. Clippers money line: Clippers -405, Lakers +317
LAL: The Lakers are 2-0 against the Clippers this season
LAC: The Clippers are 13-9 ATS at home this season
Lakers vs. Clippers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Clippers can cover
Forward Paul George brings an effortless offensive game onto the floor. George’s jumper is pure from both the mid-range area and beyond the arc. The Fresno State product’s ball handles give him the ability to create his own shot from all three levels as George puts up 23.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. In the Jan. 16 game against the Thunder, he racked up 38 points, seven rebounds, and five assists.

Guard Russell Westbrook is a spark plug off the bench who plays the game at a quick pace and will get the ball to his teammates. The nine-time All-Star excels when he gets downhill attacking the lane. Westbrook averages 11.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. In his last outing, the 35-year-old tallied 23 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. See which team to pick here.

Why the Lakers can cover
Forward Anthony Davis has been a productive player both offensively and defensively. Davis defends the paint at a high level and has the skill set to consistently create his own shot. The eight-time All-Star leads the team in points (24.9), rebounds (12.2), and blocks (2.4). On Jan. 17 versus the Mavericks, Davis logged 28 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists.

Guard Austin Reaves is an effective ball-handler in the backcourt. Reeves gets into the lane consistently and draws contact to get to the free-throw line. The Oklahoma product can also knock down perimeter jumpers. He averages 15 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. In his last game, Reeves totaled 15 points and went 3-of-4 from downtown. See which team to pick here.

How to make Clippers vs. Lakers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 231 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NBA picks at SportsLine.

24 Jan

Doc Rivers early favorite, but should Milwaukee consider Mike Budenholzer reunion?

The Milwaukee Bucks may have broken NBA precedent by firing Adrian Griffin 43 games into his first season as their head coach, but if you were watching closely, you’d know this wasn’t a surprise. Griffin’s schemes were counterintuitive on both ends of the floor. He lost top assistant Terry Stotts in October due to a dispute at a shootaround, and there was another locker room confrontation with Bobby Portis during the In-Season Tournament. As CBS Sports’ Jack Maloney pointed out, even Milwaukee’s players dropped public hints at their dissatisfaction.

Griffin might one day have developed into a good NBA coach. Aside from his record, there was no indication that it would happen this season. The Bucks are on a truncated timeline. Khris Middleton is 32. Damian Lillard is 33. Brook Lopez is 35. They have no draft capital left to trade with. The contract extension Giannis Antetokounmpo signed over the summer added only two more guaranteed seasons. This is more or less the roster Milwaukee is going to have for the rest of this championship window, and that window’s opening is going to get substantially smaller with each passing season. They have to win now, and Griffin was not ready to do that.

Their next head coach will have to be. As the Bucks discovered last spring, finding such a coach isn’t easy even in the offseason. It’s substantially harder during the season. The best coaches are generally already employed, and that extends beyond the top jobs. An incoming coach is generally going to be stuck with his team’s current staff because anyone he might want to hire from another team is locked into a contract. New coaches have no training camp to install their preferred system and minimal practice time to even cover the basics.

We’ve seen coaches replace fired colleagues and win championships right away before. Paul Westhead, Pat Riley and Ty Lue all did so, but all three started their championship seasons within the organizations they won with. Coming in from the outside and winning it all right away would be unprecedented in NBA history, yet there’s a good chance that is what the Bucks are going to try to do. So who might they try to do it with? Here are some possible candidates for one of the most fascinating job openings in NBA history.

Doc Rivers
Doc Rivers is, by all accounts, the front-runner for this job. He is one of only two championship-winning head coaches who are currently available and seemingly seeking work (along with Budenholzer). The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported that the Bucks used Rivers as an informal coaching consultant for Griffin before his firing, suggesting that the organization holds him in high regard. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Bucks are planning to “quickly pursue a small pool of accomplished and available veteran head coaches,” but there just aren’t that many of those out there right now. Beyond the candidates listed below, Milwaukee could pursue… Mike D’Antoni? He’d hardly be the solution for their lagging defense.

If the Bucks believe a lack of experience was Griffin’s greatest weakness, Rivers certainly addresses it. He’s seen it all across more than two decades as an NBA head coach. However, his overall track record would make him an odd choice were the pool not so limited.

Remember, the Bucks already had a coach that consistently won them between 50 and 60 games per game in Budenholzer. They fired him because of his issues making adjustments in the postseason. Rivers has lost 10 Game 7s as a head coach. Four of them were on his home floor. Seven teams this century have blown a 3-1 lead. Three of them were coached by Doc Rivers, who has also blown four separate 3-2 leads. His teams have a 16-33 record in possible series-winning games, according to Mike Prada.

If you want a coach to build a culture and get stars to buy in across a multi-year stretch? Rivers is the coach for you. If you’re looking for a coach to match wits with Erik Spoelstra or Nick Nurse across seven games? All of the evidence suggests that you shouldn’t hire Doc Rivers. He comes with many of the same problems Budenholzer had, but few of the modern system-building strengths. All of the reporting thus far says that Rivers is Milwaukee’s likeliest choice, and he might be an improvement upon Griffin, but he is also at a disadvantage against almost any coach he’d be likely to face in a high-stakes playoff series.

Nate McMillan
According to Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes, Nate McMillan is on Milwaukee’s short list of possible Griffin replacements. His experience separates him from Griffin and his teams, at least early in his tenures, tend to outperform expectations through defense. Though his Hawks teams largely couldn’t defend due to personnel, his four Pacers teams finished third, sixth, 12th and 15th in defense despite underwhelming talent.

The catch tends to come on offense. McMillan’s emphasis on mid-range shots over 3-pointers has always limited how efficiently his offenses have been able to play. All four of McMillan’s Indiana teams ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in 3-point attempts. The Hawks ranked 28th last season with McMillan at the helm for 58 games. They rank sixth this season. Milwaukee’s roster depends on 3-point shooting. Not only is it their biggest roster strength, but it is a necessity in creating driving space for Antetokounmpo. If McMillan is going to get this job, he is going to have to convince the Bucks that he can be more adaptable on offense. Milwaukee isn’t beating Boston if the Celtics are taking 10 more 3s than they are every night.

Jeff Van Gundy
Van Gundy has popped up in a few high-profile coaching searches over the past 17 years. He’s never landed one of those jobs, but he’s always had his ESPN broadcasting job to fall back on. This is his first season as a true free agent, and it isn’t clear if that has changed his approach to pursuing coaching opportunities. Was he serious about leaving the booth in the past? Is he more actively looking for a seat on the bench now? His work for Team USA has drawn praise, and he’s currently working in a consulting role for Boston’s front office.

The tricky part of evaluating Van Gundy as a prospect is that it’s been so long since he coached that we know very little about his approach to coaching in 2024. His last Rockets team ranked third in the NBA in 3-point attempts… but took only 23 of them per game. No modern team takes fewer than 30. No active Buck was in the league when he was coaching. How would he align their defense? These are mysteries at this point. The Bucks are reportedly looking for answers, as Haynes reported that Van Gundy is on their shortlist.

Joe Prunty
Prunty’s advantage, aside from proximity, is that the Bucks have actually seen him handle this exact situation before. He replaced Jason Kidd when he was fired and led the Bucks to a 21-16 record down the stretch that nearly culminated in a first-round upset over the No. 1 seeded Boston Celtics. The Bucks know what to expect out of Prunty. That has quite a bit of value when you only have 39 regular-season games left with which to make whatever changes need to be made.

Of course, if Milwaukee thought of Prunty as a long-term solution, he might have been hired in 2018. Sure enough, while initial reporting pegged him as the replacement for Griffin, subsequent reports have pushed him aside in favor of Rivers and other former head coaches. The stakes are substantially higher than they were in 2018, and the Bucks just fired a head coach that came in without experience. Prunty is the only candidate on this list that has never been a full-time NBA head coach. That puts him at a severe disadvantage. He’d need significant support from within Milwaukee’s locker room to earn the job even on an interim basis.

Kenny Atkinson
Atkinson is highly-coveted around the NBA, but this offseason showed he is perfectly happy remaining in Golden State. The Hornets nearly poached him to be their head coach last offseason, but he ultimately elected to remain with the Warriors. He has every reason to be choosy with his next job. He was among the NBA’s most promising young coaches in Brooklyn before the arrival of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving ultimately cost him his job.

Assuming he has no reservations about taking on another star-heavy roster, Atkinson is by far the most sensible external choice from an X’s and O’s standpoint. He made his name as an assistant under Budenholzer in Atlanta, so many of the principles Milwaukee’s players are already familiar with would still apply. In Brooklyn, however, he developed an identity of his own by running one of the NBA’s heaviest pick-and-roll offenses. He did so with players like D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen. You know what the Bucks have been criticized for not doing enough of? Running pick-and-roll with Antetokounmpo and Lillard. That pairing should be the most lethal in the NBA. Atkinson could help get them there.

Atkinson was a candidate for this job in the offseason. Charania has reported that he will be a candidate again now if the Bucks fail to secure a deal with Rivers. The Warriors will likely do everything in their power to keep Atkinson through the season, especially after the tragic death of assistant coach Dejan Milojevic, but the Bucks could give him a chance to coach a true contender. Such chances are rare and might be too tempting for him to pass up.

Terry Stotts
And now, we venture into the realm of pure speculation. There’s not really a precedent for a former assistant returning to become the head coach of a team he left mere months earlier, but the Bucks are already trying to make history with this change, so what’s one more big swing? Stotts has two enormous advantages over the field.

The first is obvious: he coached Lillard for nine seasons. Having a relationship with one of the team’s stars lends instant credibility. Of course, the second advantage is that Stotts may already have a bit of locker room credibility because he was with the team through training camp. If nothing else, that gives him an idea of what principles Griffin tried to instill even if he plans to change many of them.

The primary downside, apart from any lingering awkwardness over the October spat with Griffin that ultimately led to his dismissal, is Stotts’ profile as a coach. How much Lillard had to do with this is ultimately a matter of debate, but Stotts essentially coached worse versions of these Bucks in Portland. His offenses were great and his defenses were terrible. If the Bucks think their path to the championship comes down to fixing the defense, Stotts probably isn’t the call. If they want to overwhelm opponents with scoring? Stotts warrants a look.

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Mike Budenholzer
And so, we’ve reached the unlikeliest candidate on the board. The odds of Budenholzer returning to coach the Bucks less than one year after they fired him are virtually nonexistent. There has been no reporting suggesting it is a possibility. But I’m going to make the argument for it now. Provided there is no lingering bitterness in the locker room over previous postseason failures, Budenholzer makes more sense than any candidate on the board.

Yes, all of the flaws that cost him his job still remain. But with any other candidate, the Bucks are trying to figure out if they can lead them to the championship. They already know Budenholzer can do it because he’s done it. The majority of the roster’s core knows how to play for him. He wouldn’t suffer from the lack of a training camp as new coaches would. Heck, it might even be cheaper. The Bucks are already paying Budenholzer his old contract. Maybe they could bring him back on a discount.

It’s not going to happen because things like this never happen. It wasn’t necessarily a mistake to fire Budenholzer. The theory of potentially finding a coach better suited to seven-game chess matches than 82-game marathons was sound. If this was the offseason, I wouldn’t be listing Budenholzer. But picking a new coach in the middle of the season is an entirely different animal. Implementing wholesale changes in January and expecting them to stick in May is almost impossible. Familiarity is a valuable commodity to the Bucks right now in a way that it might not be in July. That makes Budenholzer a more sensible option for Milwaukee now than he might have been last spring. It would be awkward and unprecedented, but the Bucks have already taken a bold step by firing Griffin. Why not take one more by hitting the reset button on the move that brought Griffin to Milwaukee in the first place?

24 Jan

Why hiring Doc Rivers would be a mistake for the Milwaukee Bucks

Don’t do it, Milwaukee Bucks. Swerve. Stop. Break. Take a breath.

Just don’t hire Doc Rivers as your next head coach.

That, with the news Tuesday that the Bucks fired head coach Adrian Griffin and are eying Doc Rivers, is our last-ditch effort at offering the best advice that organization may ever get: Don’t do it.

Don’t hire Doc.

Don’t entrust him with this 30-13 team with championship aspirations but a clearly volatile set of expectations and frustrations. Don’t let him be the head coach to unlock the still-figuring-it-out duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. Don’t turn to a perpetual postseason collapser to try and get you back to the promised land of an NBA Finals.

This is not some idle, throwaway thought, and it comes as the NBA on TNT erred – or at least jumped the gun – late Tuesday night in citing a CNN Sports report claiming Rivers and the Bucks had agreed to a deal to make him the head coach. Sources told CBS Sports shortly afterward no deal with any candidate was in place, and that the report was simply “not true.”

So there’s still time to avoid this mess.

The hard, simple truth is that Doc Rivers has proven himself, time and again – and certainly since leading the Boston Celtics to one championship 16 years ago – incapable of leading aspiring championship teams anywhere good.

This wariness to turn to Rivers is also an open secret across the NBA.

When the news broke that Griffin was out, and Rivers might well be his replacement, a rival NBA executive texted this to CBS Sports: “And the other Eastern Conference contenders breathe easier.”

There’s a reason for that relief.

Rivers is quite literally one of the coaches who has most often snatched failure from the jaws of NBA postseason success. Again. And again. And again.

In its illustrious history, the NBA has seen just 13 blown 3-1 series leads and, somehow, Doc Rivers has coached three of them. He is 6-10 in Game 7s, by far the most losses for a coach in NBA history. Ten. That is, obviously, quite a lot. And he happens to be 17-33 in games in which his teams had a chance to clinch a playoff series, which is a brutal 34% win rate. That, too, is the most losses for a coach in such a scenario in NBA history.

There are a multitude of reasons Rivers is a uniquely bad choice for Bucks general manager Jon Horst and the other decision makers in Milwaukee. But first and foremost it’s Rivers’ almost astounding postseason shortcomings since winning that championship in Boston.

He had a star-studded team with the Los Angeles Clippers for seven seasons and never made a single conference finals, a ceiling Sixers fans will be familiar with. Because over his three years in Philly, while coaching the guy who dropped 70 points the other night, Rivers’ teams again failed to get past the second round of the playoffs.

Perhaps that’s because Rivers’ teams have also blown multiple 3-2 series leads – four, for those counting, including last year against the Celtics when he still coached that Sixers team.

That, too, offers insight into why Rivers would make a perplexing choice for the Bucks job. While the East has many serious would-be postseason landmines – the Heat, the new-look Pacers, the red-hot Cavs – there are two big dogs Milwaukee will have to contend with to get to a Finals.

One is the Celtics. The other is the Sixers – the team that became convinced enough of Rivers’ inability to succeed that they fired him last season.

That means, if the Bucks hire Rivers, they would have passed up Nick Nurse to hire his assistant, who they just fired 43 games into his coaching career, only to then turn to the guy Nurse has successfully replaced in Philly.

Why, then, would Milwaukee turn to Rivers with this history of lost series, heartbreak and disappointment? Why, with Griffin’s firing surely upping the pressure on those in Milwaukee, turn to this coach?

It’s hard to know. Perhaps it’s the idea that he is a “winner,” a notion the facts simply do not support. Perhaps it’s because many see him as a “culture” guy who can work magic in a locker room and among stars. But that idea will get you at least as many sideways looks as approving nods if you suggest it to rival NBA executives and coaches. There’s much to suggest Rivers is not that “great culture” builder so many in the media have tried to sell to us.

This view holds that Rivers has too often shoved his players under the proverbial bus rather than steer them toward real success. That his starkest skill since Boston has been survival rather than success, playing the game rather than winning enough of them. Ask DeAndre Jordan. Ask Ben Simmons. And now, perhaps, ask the suddenly unemployed Adrian Griffin.

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According to The Athletic, Rivers was hired to help the rookie head coach, “to serve as a veteran coaching voice to help Griffin find a path forward through the season.”

And how did Rivers help that head coach? It seems by pulling a Dick Cheney and helping the folks in Milwaukee come to the conclusion that what the Bucks really needed was Doc Rivers.

That’s some real Game Of Thrones stuff there. And it’s a reminder that Rivers has been able to go from one great situation to another – contender, to contender, to contender.

But what he hasn’t done is win. Not in any lasting way. Not in the playoffs.

The Bucks, like the Clippers and Sixers before them, may fall for Rivers’ siren song. But they’re likely to learn the same lesson Philly did less than a year ago: That Doc Rivers might be great at selling the idea of Doc Rivers, but in the business of coaching basketball teams he’s a mistake waiting to happen.

24 Jan

Blazers to protest loss to Thunder, contend that Chauncey Billups clearly called timeout, per report

The Oklahoma City Thunder shouldn’t have had much trouble with the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday, but the NBA is a strange league. Sometimes a 29-13 juggernaut can struggle at home against a 12-30 cellar-dweller. The Blazers got hot from deep. The Thunder got a terrible bounce all night. And when Anfernee Simons nailed a clutch 3-pointer with 30.1 seconds to go to give Portland a 109-106 lead, it looked like the Blazers might actually escape the Paycom Center with the upset. And then the game got drunk.

Let’s start with the easy part. The Thunder called a timeout and could have tried to draw up a game-tying 3-pointer. Instead, they opted for a quick two. Jalen Williams pulled into a nine-foot jumper to cut the deficit to one with 25.1 seconds left.

With 25.1 seconds left, the Thunder didn’t technically have to foul. They could have played out the possession, gotten the ball back, called timeout and tried to draw up one last play. So they didn’t immediately foul. They tried to force a turnover, and they were successful. They trapped Malcolm Brogdon. Both he and head coach Chauncey Billups tried to call a timeout, but the refs didn’t stop the play, so when he put the ball on the ground again, he was called for a double-dribble with 15.6 seconds remaining.

Chauncey Billups was incensed. Instead of trying to expand his lead on offense, his Blazers suddenly needed to play defense to preserve the win. So he exploded at the official and got called for a technical foul. Yet he wouldn’t calm down, so in short order, he was whistled for a second technical foul and ejected.

The end of this game is PURE CHAOS 😮

Chauncey Billups gets EJECTED with under 15 seconds to go and the Thunder have a chance to steal the game!!#NBA pic.twitter.com/cVdBDN4tkU

— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) January 24, 2024
This gave the Thunder, trailing by one, two free throws and possession on what the Blazers believed should have been a timeout. Surely they put the game away immediately… right? Well… not exactly. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed the first of his two technical free throws, his fourth miss at the line on the night. Fortunately, he drilled the second to tie the score. Jalen Williams gave the Thunder their lead with two seconds remaining on the clock.

The Blazers still had one chance left to tie the game and send it to overtime, but they came up short as a potential lob pass from Brogdon to Deandre Ayton got broken up.

Hours after the game, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Blazers plan to protest the loss with the league office. Their contention is that Billups clearly called timeout before the official whistled Brogdon for the double-dribble. Crew chief Bill Kennedy explained to the pool reporter after the game that the official in question could need to see Billups calling the timeout.

“The referee in the slot position was refereeing the double team that was right in front of him, which makes it difficult for number one to hear and number two to see a coach request a timeout behind him,” Kennedy said. “He is taught to referee the play until completion, which a double dribble happens, and he correctly calls the double dribble and then pursuant (to that) the technical fouls come forward.”

From a pure analytic perspective, the loss wasn’t that devastating for Portland. ESPN’s win probability metric never had them above 79.5% to win the game. But the sheer manner in which they lost is among the strangest defeats any team has suffered this season. They had the ball with 25 seconds left and the lead and somehow didn’t get up one more shot at either the line or from the floor. After the game, their mind was still on that missed timeout.

“This was a tough situation,” Billups said after the game. “We’ve got timeouts. Referees usually are prepared for that, that instance, that situation. I’m at halfcourt trying to call a timeout. It’s just a frustrating play. My guys played too hard for that. It’s a frustrating play.”

Brogdon was even madder. “Chaunce, the whole staff, was calling timeout,” he said in his post-game media availability. “I turned literally to the ref on the sideline, clearly the ref didn’t want us to have a timeout, so we couldn’t get one. I get scratched in the face, I’m bleeding at the end. This one’s not on us.”

The loss doesn’t mean much in itself to the Blazers, who are far out of the playoff victory, but the win could mean everything to the Thunder. Their victory took their record to 30-13, bringing them into a tie for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. The Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Clippers are all within one loss of each other. A single win or loss could wind up having enormous seeding implications. The Thunder escaped with an unlikely one on Tuesday, and that could make all of the difference in April.